Global Stocks Flat Ahead of Yellen Remarks
May 27 2016 - 10:07AM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Whittall
Global stocks were little changed Friday as investors remained
cautious ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet
Yellen that could offer clues on the timing of a U.S. interest-rate
increase.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both gained
around 0.1% in early trade. The Nasdaq Composite Index also edged
higher.
U.S. stocks closed marginally lower Thursday following two days
of gains.
The Stoxx Europe 600 inched higher after Asian stock markets
ended higher.
Ms. Yellen's scheduled remarks at Harvard University will cap a
week of comments by Fed officials. Investors will watch to see if
she echoes comments from some of her colleagues that interest rates
could be raised soon.
"There is very little barrier to another rate hike," said David
Stubbs, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management,
who expects the Fed to move in June or July.
Mr. Stubbs said that inflation is moving in the right direction,
financial conditions have improved from the start of the year and
there is "good momentum" in the labor market -- all green lights,
in his view, for another rate increase.
After previously discounting a June rate rise, investors have
begun to consider the possibility more closely in recent days.
Federal-fund futures, used by traders to place bets on
central-bank policy, show that the odds for a rate increase at the
Fed's June meeting are 24%, up from 4% earlier this month,
according to CME Group. Meanwhile, futures markets suggest a 55%
chance of a move by the end of the Fed's July meeting.
The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar to $1.115 Friday, while
the dollar edged lower versus the yen. The WSJ Dollar Index is up
nearly 3% this month as investors have considered the prospect of a
June or July rate increase -- a move that would be expected to
boost the dollar.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell said Thursday it
may be appropriate to raise rates again "fairly soon", while
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard signaled
he is keeping an open mind going into the bank's June meeting.
Investors were also digesting U.S. gross domestic product
numbers released Friday that showed the economy's first-quarter
slowdown was less pronounced than initially thought. GDP expanded
at a 0.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first three months
of 2016, revised up from an initial estimate of 0.5%.
In commodities, Brent crude oil slipped 1.5% to $49.41 a barrel
after rising above $50 a barrel during early Asian trade.
A recent rally in energy prices helped propel global stocks
higher in recent months after steep falls at the start of the year.
Brent crude is up over 8% from a month ago and 33% on the year,
mainly thanks to disruptions to production and pipelines that have
cut supply.
The rise has relieved pressure on risky assets such as stocks
and high-yield debt, which fell sharply in line with oil prices at
the start of the year on concerns over a low oil price pushing up
defaults in the energy sector.
"The main driver of markets this year has been what's going on
in commodities," said Mr. Stubbs, who noted that the higher oil
price should boost inflation expectations and feed into the Fed's
considerations over interest rates.
Mr. Stubbs said oil at around $50 to $60 a barrel is still cheap
for consumers without being too painful for producers.
"It is basically a sweet spot," he said.
Asian markets ended mostly higher Friday. Japan's Nikkei Stock
Average was up 0.4% after data released Friday showed Japanese
consumer prices fell again in April. The continuing falls could add
to pressure on the Bank of Japan to unveil more easing measures to
boost inflation -- a move that can support stocks.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3%, notching up its
seventh-straight week of gains.
Elsewhere in commodities, gold fell 0.1% to $1219.20 an
ounce.
Write to Christopher Whittall at
christopher.whittall@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 27, 2016 09:52 ET (13:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.